Evaluasi Keandalan Buffer CCPM Melalui Back-Testing Fever Chart dan Rantai Markov pada Proyek Kompresor Bertekanan Sangat Rendah
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.38035/jimt.v8i1.9921Keywords:
Critical Chain Project Management, Buffer Consumption Index, Fever Chart, Rantai Markov, keandalan penjadwalanAbstract
Perilaku dinamis buffer selama pelaksanaan proyek masih kurang dipahami apabila penilaian kinerja hanya mengandalkan satu indikator pada akhir proyek. Penelitian ini bersifat studi kasus tunggal yang retrospektif/kontrafaktual: penelitian ini mengajukan kerangka back-testing dinamis yang mengintegrasikan Schedule-Weighted Progress Analysis (SWPA), Buffer Consumption Index (BCI), pemantauan Fever Chart, serta model rantai Markov yang bersifat eksploratif. Kerangka ini diterapkan pada tiga skenario Root Square Error Method (RSEM) dengan pengurangan durasi aktivitas sebesar p = 30%, 40%, dan 50%. Evaluasi SWPA terhadap 815 aktivitas menunjukkan progres aktual tertinggal jauh dari rencana pada tahap awal proyek, dengan Indeks Progres Jadwal mencapai 0,064 pada Minggu ke-16. Back-testing BCI mengungkap sebuah paradoks: skenario p = 50% menghasilkan durasi komitmen CCPM terpendek (318 hari), namun BCI akhir terendah (3,24), yang menunjukkan ketahanan buffer proporsional terkuat berdasarkan metrik ini. Sementara itu, skenario p = 30%, yang paling presisi dalam mencocokkan estimasi analitis dengan simulasi jaringan (selisih 0,7%), justru menghasilkan BCI akhir yang paling tinggi (3,69). Fever Chart menunjukkan proyek memasuki Zona Merah pada minggu ke-20 dari 61 minggu pengamatan dan tidak pernah pulih; model rantai Markov dengan pemulusan Laplace mengindikasikan persistensi tinggi dalam kondisi Zona Merah. Mekanisme catch-up dalam Critical Chain menyerap 47,5 – 85,4% keterlambatan individual sebelum merambat hingga tingkat proyek. Temuan menunjukkan bahwa penentuan ukuran buffer yang optimal secara matematis tidak menjamin keandalan operasional, sehingga menegaskan perlunya pemantauan Fever Chart secara berkala selama pelaksanaan.
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